Cup of News – July 8th, 2017

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Kurdistan’s “Question of the Century” Lack Essential Answers, Goeff Moore, RamenIR

With Kurdistan’s independence referendum looming there are many unanswered questions. What will become of disputed Kirkuk? Will Baghdad entertain negotiations? RamenIR’s Goeff Moore writes, “The independence referendum, framed as a 100-year struggle for self-rule, will likely succeed. It is no surprise that Kurdish leadership would rather talk about self-determination than the details of voting or the plan to negotiate with Baghdad.”

 

336c71CQThe G-20’s Misguided Globalism, Dani Rodnik, Project Syndicate 

With the G-20 summit concluded (and RamenIR’s G-20 week forthcoming) Dani Rodnik criticizes the brand of globalism that its leaders take to the table, speaking of open trade, while commonly engaging in protectionism at home. Perhaps after the summit, the leaders should look inward to see what comes from their countries that run contrary to the platitudes of the summit. Rodnik posits,”the failure to maintain open trade policies is not really a failure of global cooperation or a result of insufficient global spirit. It is essentially a failure of domestic policy.”‘

 

GXv25iueDonald Trump has Made America a Back-Row Kid, Dereck Chollet, Julie Smith, Foreign Policy Magazine

The G-20 summit was revealing of the way the global winds are blowing. The authors, former Obama officials, detail how the world always called Washington when trouble arose, but now they do not. The authors conclude by writing, ” So we’re left with the simple fact that in Trump’s effort to make America great, he has made it less exceptional. Trump’s base might rejoice in pulling inward and disrupting the culture of the presidency, but as he has already started to witness firsthand, the world isn’t rejoicing.”

 

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What Would a Recession Look Like? Jason Willick, The American Interest 

With the United States already politically fragile, an unexpected recession would be a critical blow to its stability. While recessions are no stranger, most people alive today remember the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-9, a contemporary recession, as Jason Willick writes, “It’s easy to imagine Wisconsin-style protests and Illinois-style government shutdowns on a large scale as governments try to rein in civil-servant benefits to keep schools open and police on the streets. And political polarization (the cities and states that are deepest in debt are disproportionately blue) could kill efforts to deliver Federal aid.”

 

mUbM-DPsMediation in Venezuela is Doomed to Fail, Christopher Sabatini, Foreign Affairs 

With world powers meeting at the G-20 summit, it is easy to forget that Venezuela is on the verge of total political collapse. The author writes of the need for a reset in the mediation process to walk back the crisis by stating, “Latin American countries should demand a reset of mediation efforts as quickly as possible—which should include a demand for Venezuela to respect human rights and a timetable for it to meet these demands. Specifically, they should demand that any future efforts at mediation begin with the government respecting basic international norms by releasing political prisoners, ending the repression of peaceful protestors, restoring the constitutional powers of the democratically elected National Assembly,”

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